These are the slides from my presentations to two January luncheon meetings of the Anchorage Board of Realtors. The data is year-end from Alaska MLS Inc.
The Cliff Notes summary indicators:
- 15.6% = Increase in number of residential & condo sales
- 2.7% = Increase in average residential sale price
- 7.8% = Residential appreciation in past two years, after five years of only 2.1% total.
- 99% = Sale price compared with last list price
- 20% = Decline in number of days for a house to sell (now 49)
- 49 = Average time-on-market for homes in Anchorage
- 1.86 = Supply or homes: number of months it would take at the present rate of sales for all the existing inventory to be sold.
And my forecast:
- Continuation of short inventory
- Short market times
- Competition for quality properties
- Higher interest rates, up 2% from today
- Fewer deals to be done
- Average residential/condo prices up about 5%
- Upward pressure on rents
- More private apartment owners cashing in
- Continued decline of distressed property sales
