Slight Sales Decline in Early 2006

I've just posted real estate statistical reports from Alaska MLS Inc. showing market activity through February. I'm watching the data closely this spring for signs of any market slowdown.

It might be a stretch to divine any weakening of market activity from the early data. Closed sales reports for February and January reflect deals that were done late last year. A better early indicator is the number of transactions that were showing as pending at the end of January and February.

This year the pending file is in the low 200's. Last year it went from a little under 300 to just over 300 by February. Two years ago it was about the same as last year. So there have been fewer property sales so far this year.

This has not been accompanied by an increase in the number of homes for sale, however. At this time of year there have always been a little under 600 residential listings in MLS. The inventory stood at 558 at the end of last month this year.

The average sales price topped $310,000 for the first time ever on a year-to-date basis. The average price for last year on one report -- MLS has not yet published comprehensive year-end data -- was $291,013. The February closed sales average $315,751.

That preliminary average sales price for last year is an increase over 2004 of 12.13%.

For full property searches, virtual tours and many other Anchorage real estate resources, visit RealS8.com.

Your home value: the buzz about Zillow

A web-based home valuation service called zillow.com has been receiving much buzz around the country. You just type in your address (or anyone else's) and it returns an estimate and maps.

Some of the buzz is coming from fearful real estate agents who wonder if such a tool threatens their business model. (Some go so far as to hope they don't enhance the buzz by using the word Willow in their on-line posts.)

To the extent that their business model is based on being the gatekeeper to real estate data, perhaps it does. For those of us who moved long ago to being the trusted adviser and the interpreter of data, it does not.

Zillow's estimates in Alaska are probably just an extrapolation of property tax data. If you use the Zillow function to ask about comparable sales here, the site replies there are none. After all, there is no law requiring property sales to be reported in public, or to taxing authorities. Mass appraisal techniques lead to assessed values, which are often uneven for individual properties.

Zillow's graphing function in the case of my home produced the amusing assertion that it went up in value since last summer from about $334,000 to $396,000. To the extent that I trust myself as a "trusted real estate advisor" I'd question where this comes from. I would also trust my advice that with only a single garage, the home isn't worth this much now, even though the location is superior and the home is remodeled and well-maintained.

For full property searches, virtual tours and many other Anchorage real estate resources, visit RealS8.com.

Economic Forecast slides available

Every year in January all us real estate pundits come out with our real estate and economic forecasts. There is a sucession of luncheons. I was the presenter at the Anchorage Board of Realtors event.

Similar events in January are by the Building Owners and Managers (BOMA) chapter, Anchorage Economic Development Corporation (AEDC, which had Robert Reich as its headliner).

I've posted links to each of these presentations on my site on this page.

For full property searches, virtual tours and many other Anchorage real estate resources, visit RealS8.com.

Anchorage Indicators reports published

Anchorage has now updated and published their popular set of economic indicators. They call it the Neighborhood Sourcebook. The page is off the link in the previous sentence. Check it out, it's very comprehensive.

For full property searches, virtual tours and many other Anchorage real estate resources, visit RealS8.com.

Housing Bubble Won't Happen in Anchorage

Here's a link to the Anchorage Daily News interview with me today: "Balloon in real estate won't bust, agents say".

The story quotes material from my presentation at the Anchorage Board of Realtors annual economic and real estate forecast luncheon Wednesday of this week. I'll post the pertinent slide to my main web site if you would like the details of the data.

For full property searches, virtual tours and many other Anchorage real estate resources, visit RealS8.com.

Residential sales prices up 11.5% year-to-date

MLS reports for November show an 11.5% average reported sales price for the first 11 months of this year, compared with all of 2004. The monthly reports show November sales at $297,163, down from the monthly reported sales that peaked at $305,530 for August.

This may not reflect an overall market decline, however, because higher-cost new construction jobs were probably part of the mix to a greater degree at the end of the summer. At this time of year one would expect to see more resale properties. There is also a certain amount of discounting that happens now by owners who want to get a property sold and not carry it through the winter.

However, there has not been a pattern in past years of values peaking in late summer, followed by general price declines on a monthly basis in the fall.

For full property searches, virtual tours and many other Anchorage real estate resources, visit RealS8.com. The site includes the detailed reports of market data referred to in this post.

Anchorage at 90

"Changing Fast, with More to Come" is the title of a terrific report from the University of Alaska Institute for Social and Economic Research. I've noticed a revitalization of this research arm at the university since Fran Ulmer recently took over after her unsuccessful run for Governor.

The report looks closely at the 1990 census data and extracts a profile of the city and its changing demographic profile. Its conclusion begins:

"Anchorage at 90 looks surprisingly like other U.S. cities, given how recently it was still a frontier town. It has an aging white population, a young and diverse minority population, and a growing number of residents over 65. Many of its minorities, single mothers, and older people living alone are clustered at or near poverty levels. Fast growth in housing prices is prompting many residents, especially families, to move outside the core city and creating a burgeoning commuter population."

Download the full report from the link in the first paragraph.

For full property searches, virtual tours and many other Anchorage real estate resources, visit RealS8.com.

Oh, no, HE'S BACK!!

The latest is that HE'S BACK! Last night I looked out the window before going out with the terriers for "last pee's and wee's and night-night treats" (always have to, given the number of predators I live with here) and THERE HE WAS, CHOWING DOWN IN MY GARDEN!

Enough already! This is not a porcupine hotel, motel, or Royal Fork restaurant!

Now he knows where he thinks he lives so as I run out (with terriers locked up) with a pole to make him ball up so I can catch him, and garbage can in hand. He races (didn't know they could go that fast) under the shed. So back we are, my wife and I, with the same eviction routine with the fully-extended window washing pole and rake. Fortunately after not too much effort the silly creature runs out from under the shed right into the garbage can that's lying on its side waiting for him.

Now this time it's off to the thousands of acres of state park up a long twisting road about five miles away. "Find yourself somebody else to freeload off of!" he's told.

It's "three strikes and you're out" around here. Next time he gets shot. My wife says porcupine belly is good eating.

For full property searches, virtual tours and many other Anchorage real estate resources, visit RealS8.com.

Evicting the tenant from Hell

This is sort of real estate story. File it under landlord-tenant relations.

Anyone who has been a landlord dreads the occasional tenant from Hell. One such moved in on me yesterday.

A pocupine trapped under one's shed, and two terriers, is not a happy combination. After a quick trip to the vet to get facefuls of quills removed, I returned to evict my unwelcome tenant.

How do you chase out a pocupine from under a shed that's 15 feet long and only about six inches above the ground? Like the vet said, when I asked him how he managed to neuter such a creature for the Alaska Zoo, you do it "very carefully".

A pocupine when challenged just rolls itself into a ball. But with the window-washing pole extended full-lengeth it was possible to shove and prod him to the the other end of the shed. Then running around the building with a rake, quickly before he moved farther back under, I dragged him out into the yard.

There he crouched in a ball. Silly creature. I just plopped a garbage can over him. Then I shoved the lid under the can and righted the now closed can, safely covered over. Lastly, it was down the road to show him off to the neighbor children, who then trooped after me to our neighboring 50 area undeveloped tract where we could let him go.

For full property searches, virtual tours and many other Anchorage real estate resources, visit RealS8.com.

Anchorage homes more affordable, says national study

Coldwell Banker has done an "apples-to-apples" study of housing values since the late 1980's. The Home Price Comparison Index calculates what the same house is worth in different markets. This year's study ranks 319 US markets. Anchorage ranks #170, about in the middle. The index rates a typical middle-management 2200 sq.ft. 4 bedroom 2.5 bath house that has a family room and double garage. At $305,107 this Anchorage home is only 76% of the cost of the US Average home of this type, however.

This is a useful study for anyone who plans a move from or to another community. E-mail me, NThomas@RealS8.com for the full study.

For full property searches, virtual tours and many other Anchorage real estate resources, visit RealS8.com.