Monday, January 27, 2014

Here's a link to PowerPoint slides of my 2014 Anchorage Real Estate Market Report and Forecast. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/18471084/Niel-Thomas-2014-Market-Report-Forecast.pdf.

These are the slides from my presentations to two January luncheon meetings of the Anchorage Board of Realtors. The data is year-end from Alaska MLS Inc.

The Cliff Notes summary indicators:
  • 15.6% = Increase in number of residential & condo sales
  • 2.7% = Increase in average residential sale price
  • 7.8% = Residential appreciation in past two years, after five years of only 2.1% total.
  • 99% = Sale price compared with last list price
  • 20% = Decline in number of days for a house to sell (now 49)
  • 49 = Average time-on-market for homes in Anchorage
  • 1.86 = Supply or homes: number of months it would take at the present rate of sales for all the existing inventory to be sold.
 And my forecast:
  • Continuation of short inventory
  • Short market times
  • Competition for quality properties
  • Higher interest rates, up 2% from today
  • Fewer deals to be done
  • Average residential/condo prices up about 5%
  • Upward pressure on rents
  • More private apartment owners cashing in
  • Continued decline of distressed property sales
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